Covid testing trend

The week to week numbers, thru 7/20, were down a smidgen in NJ for the first time in a while.  They were going up every week since late April.  Hoping its a sign that summer surge is peaking but we'll see.

A couple of possibilities could contribute to the downward movement. One is that it’s summer, and if your kid gets a “summer cold” maybe you just don’t bother with testing since they’re out of school and can just stay home. 

The other is people are testing less because they don’t want summer vacation trips disrupted. Head in the sand stuff. 

There's no question that the testing data represents a fraction of total cases.  That's been true for a long time.  But that does not mean the trend shown by a fraction of cases is not indicative of what's going on.  I believe that it has been and is.

bub said:

There's no question that the testing data represents a fraction of total cases.  That's been true for a long time.  But that does not mean the trend shown by a fraction of cases is not indicative of what's going on.  I believe that it has been and is.

I generally agree with you but I also try to consider other factors. There could be situations in which someone is less likely to go through the testing process, i.e. summer vacation. You might end up taking a disproportionate number of potential positives out.

If my daughter got any kind of sniffles or slight fever during the school year, I was handing her a nasal swab. Less likely right now. 

And I’m not trying to argue really. It’s more interesting for me from a theoretical perspective. 

COVID numbers are now based on hospitalizations, not home tests, and have been for some time.  Lower numbers mean that more of those who contract COVID have a milder case that does not require hospitalization.  This can be due to a number of factors. 

joan_crystal said:

COVID numbers are now based on hospitalizations, not home tests, and have been for some time.  Lower numbers mean that more of those who contract COVID have a milder case that does not require hospitalization.  This can be due to a number of factors. 

Thanks. I didn’t know that info. 

joan_crystal said:

COVID numbers are now based on hospitalizations, not home tests, and have been for some time.  Lower numbers mean that more of those who contract COVID have a milder case that does not require hospitalization.  This can be due to a number of factors. 

My GP said she was seeing far fewer serious cases when I saw her back in April.

Being over 65, I took the recommendation to get another booster. Last vax was 6 months ago plus I'm going away on vacation, so I thought it was a good idea. I went online and made an appointment for Monday noon, at the Rite-Aid pharmacy where I've gotten my past booster shots. When I arrived, they said, they had no vaccines: no Moderna, no Pfizer. I asked why the hell they had taken my vax appointment when they had no inventory of vaccines, and they just looked annoyed. 

Has anyone found this elsewhere? 

Another source of Covid data is wastewater testing and apparently this may be more reliable than other methods that depend upon people testing and/or reporting.  I follow the "Your Local Epidemiologist" blog on Substack (https://yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com/) and she discusses Covid from time to time along with other public health issues. (She became recognized prominently during the pandemic.) Very interesting and science-based information there. 

The official NJ web site I look at gives data on testing and separately on hospitalization. Based upon experience, I think the testing data for the week ending today will come in higher than last week.  There's usually a lag and the final number does not come in until 2 or three business days after the end date of the week in question.  And there can be a big jump based on the lag numbers.  I hope not but we'll see.

The_Soulful_Mr_T said:

Being over 65, I took the recommendation to get another booster. Last vax was 6 months ago plus I'm going away on vacation, so I thought it was a good idea. I went online and made an appointment for Monday noon, at the Rite-Aid pharmacy where I've gotten my past booster shots. When I arrived, they said, they had no vaccines: no Moderna, no Pfizer. I asked why the hell they had taken my vax appointment when they had no inventory of vaccines, and they just looked annoyed. 

Has anyone found this elsewhere? 

I was able to get an appointment easily at CVS and they had vaccine supply. But when I got there I inquired about the "wait six months after previous vaccine" guideline I had seen in the online pre-appointment survey I had received. The pharmacy tech said he didn't know if the same rule would be in effect for the new 2024-25 vaccines expected in the next couple of months. It might, but they don't know yet. I'm going to be traveling internationally in October and hope to get that vaccine a few weeks ahead of the trip, so I decided not to get the current booster. (I wish I had done it when the recommendation first came out, but I don't have any travel or other higher risk plans sooner and, so far at least, levels are still a good bit lower in this region than some other parts of the country.)

bub said:

The official NJ web site I look at gives data on testing and separately on hospitalization. Based upon experience, I think the testing data for the week ending today will come in higher than last week.  There's usually a lag and the final number does not come in until 2 or three business days after the end date of the week in question.  And there can be a big jump based on the lag numbers.  I hope not but we'll see.

Testing data, even if being tracked, is unreliable because most people do not report home testing data and those that do are more apt to report a positive than a negative finding.

joan_crystal said:

bub said:

Testing data, even if being tracked, is unreliable because most people do not report home testing data and those that do are more apt to report a positive than a negative finding.

I've said this a number of times. They are not reliable if your looking for the true absolute number of cases.  The reported positives are a fraction of the cases and have been for a long time.  But the trend the chart shows is reliable.  The ups and downs -  the curve of the chart - usually tracks with the hospital cases chart which is reliable.  

The NJ positive tests have been declining very gradually since the week ending 8/3.  Hopefully this reflects that the summer surge has peaked.  If so, it can inform your decision on when to get the the latest version of the vaccine.  I'm seeing some suggestions to wait til October.   

The new vax is being shopped. I will look to get it next week. I've gone to Rite-Aid here in JC for my vaxxes in the past - they were always well-organized and pleasant - but they seem to be closing.

CVS seems to be scheduling shots.   

bub said:

CVS seems to be scheduling shots.   

I got a text message that they had them and are scheduling appointments. I'm gonna talk to my doctor in a couple of weeks to see when the best time to get one might be... I'll get Covid and flu vaccines together.

I got an alert from CVS that the updated COVID vaccine is available.

I got the new covid booster last week; happened to be at the pharmacy and they'd just received their shipment. I was the first one! (no lollipop, tho). Good timing for me, as I'm a senior, and traveling for vacation next week.

No side effects to report, other than a realllly sore arm for a couple days (worse than I recall the other  ones).